Following the defeat to Montenegro, John Toshack has been persuaded to end his six-year stint as Wales’ national team manager. And considering the regression and repeatedly poor showing in qualifying stages during his reign, it should not come as much of a surprise.
In 2004, Mark Hughes departed to take the managerial vacancy at Blackburn Rovers, leaving behind a side well-placed to make a decent attempt at qualifying for the 2006 World Cup in Germany; they had beaten Italy on their way to finishing as runners-up to the Azzurri in their Euro 2004 qualification group, only to narrowly miss out on a first finals since 1958 in a controversial playoff against Russia (in the first leg where Yegor Titov, a substitute, tested positive for nandrolone, but Russia were only instructed not to re-select him, and Ryan Giggs was suspended for an ‘elbow’ following histrionics from Vadim Evseev, who headed in the only goal of the tie in the return match).
Toshack took over a team with a world-class star player in Ryan Giggs and a high-calibre supporting cast including Craig Bellamy, Simon Davies and Gary Speed, and with one of the most promising crop of young players for a generation in Wayne Hennessy, Chris Gunter, Joe Ledley, Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. Yet qualifying campaigns under Toshack were consistently poor; finishing fifth out of six in 2006, fifth out of seven in trying to reach Euro 2008 and fourth out of six on the road to South Africa. The last qualification push was particularly dispiriting, as a mental fragility was indicated by three players (Bellamy, Bale and Jason Koumas) all missing penalties in consecutive matches at crucial stages which could have galvanised a flagging attempt in a moderate group.
For every draw against the Czech Republic or holding out for over an hour against Germany – hardly worthy highlights – there were defeats to Cyprus and Finland, draws against Azerbaijan and a 5-1 thrashing at home against Slovakia that recalled the darkest days under Bobby Gould in the late 1990s, let alone the near misses of Hughes and Terry Yorath.
Some pundits have praised Toshack for being bold about the difficult task of attempting to break Wales’ qualification hoodoo, giving 43 players debuts and developing the likes of Bale and Ramsey as internationals whilst dealing with the transition from an experienced team into a side full of youth. He may have clashed with players such as Robbie Savage, but any decent manager would struggle to avoid that, and he was unlucky to be deprived of some of his best players through injury or retirement. It may be true that Toshack was unfortunate not to have a fit Simon Davies or a younger Ryan Giggs, but his resources were still enough to compete with teams such as Poland and Austria rather than be rolled over by them, and the examples of Slovakia and Slovenia in acquitting themselves well, beating big sides such as Russia and Italy and qualifying for a World Cup despite having a similarly limited squad of decent players clustered around one or two genuine talents, does not compare well to the former Liverpool striker’s record.
A culture of gloom is always quick to set in with Welsh fans who have seen players of huge pedigree like Ian Rush, Neville Southall and Hughes all fail to grace the world stage as John Charles and Ivor Allchurch did in their sole World Cup 52 years ago, and despite some extenuating circumstances, Toshack’s reign ought to be viewed as another failure in a long line of misery. The final straw came in Pogdorica, where a Montenegrin side – who finished behind Wales when still part of Serbia in 2004 – dominated the early stages despite missing Fiorentina playmaker Stevan Jovetic, riding out a late Welsh rally to win 1-0.
Despite their minnow ranking by UEFA, the Balkan side are much better than first impressions might indicate, and early signs are that another dismal Welsh campaign may need to be endured with the Dragons likely to finish in the lower ranks of this tough group, before a potential upturn in fortunes can take place.
The only argument for keeping Toshack in his post for any longer would have been that, as Aston Villa have found out, there are not too many good managers kicking their heels and waiting by the phone. Despite Stoke City’s Newport-bred Tony Pulis ruling himself out, there are several viable alternatives for Wales to turn to: Brian Flynn, the Under-21 manager, has performed solidly in his role and is familiar with many of the players whom he developed to international standard; Chris Coleman may have had a mixed spell in charge at Coventry, but his hugely admirable success at Fulham (overshadowed lately by Roy Hodgson) and his standing as a former captain would qualify him for the post; and Kenny Jackett, the ex-Swansea boss, has been lauded for his promising turn in charge of Millwall. More risky appointments would include the UEFA-qualified but managerially untested John Hartson or even the chance that Giggs could combine the end of his playing days with a Hughes-like first step into management, but the variety of options and the need for a fresh start emphasise how the Montenegro defeat changed Toshack’s position from precarious to untenable.
It probably is too much to ask for the new boss to oversee a rally and a serious effort to reach Euro 2012, but there are enough good players, young and old, to take Wales back from the brink of the abyss and to the verge of qualification. If they do improve, add three points to consistent displays yet come within a missed penalty from qualification, it won’t come as much of a surprise.