Thomas Nuttall-Jones
It might sound like something that would come out of a Richard Scudamore think tank, but a "premier competition" without it’s most premier teams becomes slightly less alluring. Most notably, last years competition left heavyweights Bayern Munich and Juventus standing on the dock, and taking the stance of the neutral I was pretty happy at the back end of last season when I realised they would be returning.
Such teams have quality which makes competitions like this one, so it is a real shame that although the two aforementioned giants are back, two teams with real European Cup pedigree, 11 titles between them in fact, will not be taking part. Of Ajax and AC Milan it will surely be the Italians who will be missed the most. It seems almost unbelievable that there will be no Champions League football for Kaka, Shevchenko, Ronaldinho and all, and it is truly a tragedy that in what will almost certainly be his last season as a professional, that Paulo Maldini is denied a final opportunity to grace a competition that he has won 5 times.
Nevertheless, in contrast to these absentees it will be interesting to see how some of the surprising amount of unknown quantities do in their respective groups. Of the 32 teams, I count five with little or no Champions League experience. Zenit St. Petersburg, of course, have given us the most clues with their performances in the UEFA Cup and their recent defeat of Manchester Utd in Monaco. Arshavin or no Arshavin I expect them to at least give Juventus and Real Madrid some problems. BATE, Aalborg, Anorthosis Famagusta and CFR Cluj’s fates are admittedly far harder to predict, and airing on the side of caution I’d have to say that all four would be lucky to grab a UEFA Cup place.
Group A
Of all the groups, Group A already looks by far the most cut and dried. Last year’s runners up Chelsea look to have improved, both in the dug-out, with "Big" Phil Scolari replacing the underwhelming but oddly effective Avram Grant, and on the pitch. Deco and Bosingwa were, Spain omitting, in my top five players of Euro 2008. I found it extremely curious that the former didn’t make it into the official "Team of the Tournament". With these additions it would be a brave man to bet against Roman’s Roubles bringing his London outfit the ultimate success at the 6th time of asking.
Equally brave would be Roma if they include new face Riise in the side to face Chelsea, but own-goal threats aside they will prove ample challenge for first place and should be too strong for the other two teams. A strong squad will become stronger still if Julio Baptista can finally sustain his flashes of potential, and I would back Roma to make it to the knockout stages, where they will probably be tied with Man Utd and completely lie down. Bordeaux’s recent European experience and Cluj’s surprisingly cosmopolitan squad should still prove insubstantial.
Prediction:
1st: Chelsea
2nd: AS Roma
UEFA Cup Place: Bordeaux
Whipping Boys: CFR Cluj
Group B
In Group B we have Inter, whose desperation to halt their European underachievement is probably second only to Chelsea’s. Despite this underachievement they must be seen to be favourites for the group. Adriano returns to Inter from Brazil looking to prove his countless doubters wrong, but the age of Inter’s squad could prove a stumbling block beyond this stage.
Werder Bremen have had some time away from the competition but they still have a strong squad, Germany stalwart Frings plays in front of a tough defence and the excellent Diego will be looking to provide sufficient supply for Chelsea loanee Claudio Pizzaro.
The foray of Greeks Panathinaikos into Cyprus to face Famagusta should prove interesting, although having been to Famagusta it came as no suprise to learn that they rely on another town, Larnaca, to sustain their two football teams.
Prediction:
1st: Inter Milan
2nd: Werder Bremen
UEFA Cup Place: Panathinaikos
Whipping Boys: Anorthosis Famagusta
Group C
On paper, it would appear that Barcelona have the most favourable draw of the big sides, with respect to Shakhtar Donetsk, Basel and Sporting of course. For those who don’t follow the Spanish League, the visit of the Lisbon club to the Nou Camp on September 16th will be an early clue to how a Barcelona without Deco and Ronaldinho, arguably the most important players of their recent successes, will function. Euro 2008’s highly impressive midfield duo of Xavi and Andres Iniesta will provide the fulcrum of new manager and Barcelona legend Pepe Guardiola’s side. Any side in the world would struggle to keep Barca’s front-line quiet, which will usually contain three out of Alex Hleb, Thierry Henry, Samuel Eto’o and Lionel Messi. Bojan also showed promise in last year’s group stage and expect to see him add to that this year.
Of the remaining three sides it is hard to see how this group will finish and we could be looking here for some drama in the final fixture. Sporting have unfortunately proved to be a selling club in recent years, but at the time of writing have managed to hold onto captain and Portugal star Joao Moutinho. Backed up by Miguel Veloso and former Barcelona midfielder Fabio Rochemback, they could be the best bet to progress in second place.
Basel progressed through the first group stage in the 2002/2003 season but have had to settle mostly for UEFA Cup football since then, and I expect them to be re-familiarised with the competition before the season is out.
Shakhtar Donetsk have yet to do anything remarkable despite the huge amount of money available to the Ukrainian side. The pressure will be on Romanian coach Luchescu to do better this time around.
Prediction:
1st: Barcelona
2nd: Sporting Lisbon
Uefa Cup: FC Basel
Whipping Boys: Shakhtar Donetsk
Group D
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Group D has managed to reunite many old friends for various reasons, all of which involve Liverpool. It might be considered a shame that the draw is not able to provide more variety in match-ups, having linked Liverpool to Marseille for the second time in two years and to PSV for the third time in three. The most interesting match-up however must surely be when Liverpool take their star striker and former Atletico captain Fernando Torres back to the Vicente Calderon on October 22nd. It would be crass to make assumptions and discuss how Torres might celebrate in front of the Madrid fans, especially as they have made major improvements in defence in Tomáš Ujfaluši and John Heitinga. Their status as fourth seeds is not representative of the quality they possess, rather their European absence over recent seasons, and as such the group contains four very capable sides.
Liverpool have the most European pedigree, but have started the season poorly, needing 118 minutes to beat a plucky Standard Liege. Although they will probably be favourites for the group, they will have to improve, especially by deciding how better to use new boy Robbie Keane, if they want to finish ahead of the pack.
Atletico will feel they have replaced Torres to some extent with their new star "el Kun" Sergio Aguero, and have another goalscorer in Diego Forlan, a completely different player from his nightmare Manchester United days. Backing them up is a veritable wealth of creative talent, including Simao, Maxi Rodriguez and, speaking of old friends, former Liverpool forwards and Champions League winners Luis Garcia and Florent Sinama-Pongolle. In addition, Atletico stormed through the tastiest of qualifying ties, thrashing Schalke, who have plenty of Champions League experience themselves, 4-1 on aggregate.
Panathinaikos Centenary Green Schalke 08/09 Home
In PSV we have a side that is used to qualifying past this stage, three times in the last four years in fact, and in their four back-to-back Dutch league titles they are obviously a team in the habit of winning, which is a valuble quality to have. However, last season they missed talisman Philip Cocu in Europe and have lost keeper Gomez to Spurs, which may be another difficult loss to cope with. If Atletico play to their potential they will surely provide a more likely option to progress.
Having won at Anfield early on, Marseille came close to progressing from last year’s group until Liverpool came to the Stade Velodrome in the final match and won comfortably. This season the former winners of the competition have strengthened with hot prospect Hatem Ben Arfa, but voices within the club have admitted that, once Djibril Cisse was allowed to return to England, options for strikers were a bit thin on the ground. Only time will tell if they have enough up front to succeed.
Prediction:
1st: Liverpool
2nd: Atletico Madrid
UEFA Cup: PSV Eindhoven
Whipping Boys: Olympique de Marseille
Group E
In Group E we see the defending champions back in action after their victory in Moscow. Manchester Utd have managed to weather the storm of Cristiano Ronaldo’s seemingly inevitable departure, and so have maintained a squad that scarcely needed any improvement. Nevertheless the figure of Dimitar Berbatov taking the pitch in the red of Utd has the potential to recreate Eric Cantona’s effect on the team more than any other player in the last 10 years. If Paul Scholes And Ryan Giggs manage to extend the recent renaissance of their careers we have seen in the past 2 years then the forecast is bleak for the opponents of Man Utd.
Familiar opponents in recent times, Celtic will hope to repeat their previous group stage successes in a group with the Red Devils, having progressed from Group F in 2006/07, managing to beat Utd along the way. The first British team ever to win this competition will admittedly have slim hopes of repeating that feat, but they will be hopeful of progression if they keep defeats to a bare minimum of one or two.
Their competition for second place will be El Submarino Amarillo, the "Yellow Submarine" of Villarreal. Semi-finalists in 2006, they suffered a lull following that success and until last season were disappointing even in the league. Bolstered by a heavy core of Spanish triumphants fresh from Euro 2008 success, Senna, Capdevilla and Santi, Villarreal also boasts veterans Edmilson and Robert Pires as well as Turkey’s impressive Nihat. If their new, young, American strike pairing of Giuseppe Rossi and new recruit Jose Altidore can gel, they would certainly be my pick to progress ahead of Celtic.
Aalborg BK, it must be said, have slim chance of making it even into the UEFA Cup. However, it is in that competition from which they must draw the most hope, as it is there where we can see evidence of the possible giant killing exploits we have seen they are capable. For in the 2007/2008 competition, Italians Sampdoria were felled by the Danish outfit. Celtic fans will be interested to know that it was Kaunas, the conquerors of Rangers, who Aalborg had to beat in order to reach this stage.
Prediction:
1st: Manchester United
2nd: Villarreal
UEFA Cup: Glasgow Celtic
Whipping Boys: Aalborg BK
Group F
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A competition like this usually throws up the old "group of death" cliche, and in this case it must surely be reserved for Group F. Two of the teams, Bayern Munich and Fiorentina, were removed by underdogs in the Semi-finals of last years UEFA Cup. Lyon and Steaua Bucharest have more recent Champions League experience, and even if Lyon haven’t fully lived up to their "next big thing" tag (at least in Europe), both teams are capable of getting a result in this group on their day.
Despite their year long holiday, FC Bayern must be seen as the narrow favourites for this group. They made most of their improvements the summer following their failure to qualify for last seasons Champions League. Luca Toni and Franck Ribery, two of those improvements, provide goals and creativity. German contingent Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Podolski and Klose are reliable, and more graft is provided by Lucio and captain Mark van Bommel. Despite their absence Bayern have lost none of their pedigree.
Lyon are usually expected to qualify from their group, and although in a group like this no guarantees can be offered, they too have made improvements to a squad that was already rich with quality. Although losing Gregory Coupet and Hatem Ben Arfa will be seen as a blow, Lyon have continued their tradition of signing Lille’s best players, and have added Jean Makoun. John Mensah has also arrived from Rennes.
Qualifying for this competition from Serie A is never a mean feat, so Fiorentina, even without considering their UEFA Cup experience, must not be underestimated. Add to that the fact that it was the mighty AC Milan that were forced to make way and we have a frightening prospect. It is a fantastic achievement being here for a team that only a few years ago were struggling to even survive. It will be interesting to see how the Viola fans welcome back Luca Toni, one of the most important players of their revival, when Bayern Munich come to visit. One thing is for certain though, they will be looking for the likes of Adrian Mutu and Alberto Gilardino to cancel out any contribution he might make.
In Steaua Bucharest we have another former winner of the competition, with a multi-national squad which in the last two years have served up some impressive performances at this stage. However, it must also be said that they have failed to progress from this stage in either of the past two seasons they have taken part, and although I expect the group to be close, and although they do not deserve the "whipping boys" tag, I still believe they will finish fourth.
Prediction:
1st: Bayern Munich
2nd: Lyon
UEFA Cup: Fiorentina
Whipping Boys: Steaua Bucharest
Group G
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Group G contains two of the most recent reminders that anything can happen in this competition, and in Porto and Arsenal, two most unexpected finalists in 2004 and 2006 respectively, we possibly have the two least unexpected teams to qualify from this group. Both lost out narrowly in the knockout stages last year, and although Porto especially have lost players, notably Ricardo Quaresma to Inter, I expect that a repeat of last year could be the worst either team will achieve this year.
Arsenal have replaced Alex Hleb with Samir Nasri, but have failed to replace Mathieu Flamini. This lack of depth and battle in the middle of the park may cause a problem, but it might be their only one. Their creativity is well-known, and if Robin van Persie can stay injury free (a big ask seeing as he has completed fewer than 20 full matches in his four years at Arsenal) they will be a threat to any team. Theo Walcott’s continued emergence could also prove crucial.
The manner of Porto’s exit to Schalke last year was unfortunate and they will be looking to progress further this year. However with the loss of Quaresma they lack real guile in the final third, and they will face real competition from Fenerbache. Fener are another team familiar with a recent and unlucky exit from this competition. Their most significant change from last year is undoubtably their manager. Luis Aragones is a controversial figure but his quality now is hard to doubt following Spain’s glory in Austria and Switzerland. With him he has brought Daniel Guiza, the current holder of Spain’s golden boot, added to a squad full of Turkish Euro 2008 semi-finalists and Brazilian flair in Champions League winner Roberto Carlos and captain Alex. I am going to go out on a limb and back them for qualification.
Dynamo Kyiv will be an interesting one to watch given their re-emergence under Yuri Semin, but it could well be that they will need longer to fully adapt to the Russian’s gameplan and this is probably a season of transition.
Prediction:
1st: Arsenal
2nd: Fenerbache
UEFA Cup: FC Porto
Whipping Boys: Dynamo Kyiv
Group H
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Finally we have Group H. The obvious clash in this group will see Real Madrid and Juventus face off, and not for the first time. Juventus could be said to have a weaker squad following their Serie B adventure, but the amazing thing about them is that Gigi Buffon, Alex Del Piero, David Trezuguet and Pavel Nedved, among others, remained and rode out the storm. It is ironic that some of the players who left, most notably Zambrotta at Milan, are missing out on Champions League football that would have rewarded them had they stayed. Time will tell how the Juventus faithful react to Fabio Cannavaro’s return to Turin.
Real Madrid have spent most of this summer chasing Cristiano Ronaldo, unsucessfully, and they have lost Robinho to the new wealth of Manchester City, so depending on what you think of Rafael van der Vaart, Madrid could be said to be weaker going forward this season. Their performance in the competition since winning it in 2002 has been poor, and only time will tell if they will turn it around.
These two giants’ main competition lies in new upstarts Zenit St. Petersburg. Having kept hold of Arshavin, Zenit will provide outstanding proof as to the gulf between the Champions League and UEFA Cup, and they will be hoping that their experiences in one will make up for their complete lack of experience in the other.
Between the three of them they should provide far too much opposition for tiny BATE, who in my opinion would be forgiven for celebrating even a single point. However they are here on their own merit and I would be delighted if they were to prove me wrong.
Prediction:
1st: Juventus
2nd: Real Madrid
UEFA Cup: Zenit St. Petersburg
Whipping Boys: BATE
