Liam Barnes
England look certain to make up for missing out on Euro 2008 and waltz into the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Barring a major implosion they should manage to win their qualifying group at a canter, leaving at least one of the British and Irish sides represented in Africa’s first time hosting of the tournament.
The 4-0 friendly win against an average Slovakia side underlines how Fabio Capello has restored confidence and potency to a team bereft of both under the hapless Steve McClaren. However, the picture for the smaller home nations is much less rosy, with both Irish sides showing strong intent but still facing a mountain to climb before securing a seat to Johannesburg, while Wales and Scotland have more or less booked their places on the sofa.
This might seem a little pessimistic, but Wales at least are surely doomed. The latest defeat, 2-0 at home to a Finnish team that on paper was eminently beatable, has ensured John Toshack will be putting his plans in place for the Euro 2012 qualifying phase.
There has always been an element of self-destruction about Wales’ qualifying campaigns: three penalties missed in successive games against Azerbaijan, Russia and Germany this time round throwing away valuable points (especially in light of the Finland defeat, which puts Wales fourth having played a game more than second-placed Russia); the collapse in the Euro 2004 preliminaries, where a famous victory over Italy was followed by a winless run of five and an edgy play-off defeat to Russia (a bit of a bogey team it seems); and then there was the infamous Paul Bodin penalty miss against Romania which cost Rush, Saunders and Southall their deserved place at USA ’94.
For Welshmen far and wide it is an infuriating fact that despite the quality of some of the sides since their only World Cup in 1958 – where the legendary team of John Charles and Ivor Allchurch unluckily fell to a goal in the quarter-final by none other than Pele – something always goes wrong, and history has well and truly repeated itself.
The desperation for the Scots to qualify is not as bad as in the Valleys, but the prognosis is only slightly healthier. No tournament finals since France ’98, and outclassed by a strong Dutch side, with difficult teams such as Macedonia and Norway hovering around on similar points, George Burley’s side seem to have a lot to do to get out of their group.
There is no chance that Scotland will dislodge Holland at the top, so the Tartan Army have to go for the play-off spot that comes for group runners-up, except the side with the least points. Providing they manage this, the calibre of opposition they may face is daunting, with the likes of Greece, Russia, Turkey, Croatia and possibly even heavyweights Portugal or France likely and surely superior opposition.
Ireland are in a better position, with a 1-1 draw against Bulgaria placing them seven points clear (having played a game extra) in second, but if they lose their top-of-the-table clash with world champions Italy, then they will be in a similar position to Scotland in dreading the draw and hoping to get a bit of luck. Ditto Northern Ireland, whose impressive victory over Poland – even if Artur Boruc’s Paul Robinson impersonation was the winner – will be wasted if they don’t improve their awful away record, and if the Czech Republic and/or Slovakia win their games in hand it could be curtains for the Cape Town dream.
Part of the problem is the vicious circle of events that FIFA’s seeding system causes. Because one team’s ranking is based on their previous performances in the last round of qualifying, if a weak team does as is expected, they will receive a tough draw, whereas if a big team performs to roughly its expected level and hits the top two places, it will most likely get a relatively straightforward draw. In other words, once a team misses out on a few tournaments, it is very hard to get back into a position to qualify as they will undoubtedly continue to be drawn in a harder group.
This has happened to Scotland, most obviously for the last Euros, when they were stuck in a group of death with Italy, France and Ukraine, all of whom made the quarter-final in Germany in 2006. Other teams to suffer have been Belgium (accompanying Spain and Turkey in Group 5), a revitalised Hungary (Sweden, Denmark and Portugal in Group 1) and Romania (with Serbia and France in Group 7). What this means is that the big teams – chiefly England, Italy, Germany, France and Spain – always get winnable groups. Up and coming teams like Croatia, Sweden and Russia have a better chance to hold onto their positions, and fallen giants like Hungary or smaller countries like Wales have an almost impossible mission to reclaim a place at the top table.
Of the littler nations in the top two spots at the moment, Bosnia and Lithuania have consistently drawn short straws in getting tough groups which hamper the progress of their sides despite better teams than normal, and Slovakia and Northern Ireland, competing for the same spots in Group 3, must expect the Czechs and possibly the Poles to knock at least one of them off their perches.
Not one minnow in Europe has qualified for the World Cup since Slovenia in 2002 – Ukraine, debutants in 2006, certainly do not count, often contributing the core of successful Soviet sides – and FIFA’s pandering to big countries makes it less likely, especially with more places being given to lesser African, Asian and North American sides in the name of political correctness.
As in club competitions, the smaller sides are getting a raw deal as organisers make sure bigger earners get through to the latter stages. Variety of teams decreases, and with it an element of sameness and staleness that any Premier League fan will know is sure to increase, leaving international football a closed shop.
