Tom Oldfield
Liverpool have an almighty battle on their hands if they want to climb back into the title race – especially considering the ominous statistics that are staring them in the face. Defeats to Tottenham, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland have put the Reds up against the ropes after just nine games of the new season and history suggests they have left themselves too much to do already.
As has been widely documented, manager Rafael Benitez saw his side lose just two league games during the last campaign yet still finish four points behind eventual champions Manchester United. He knew Liverpool needed to be even more ruthless and he added a couple of new pieces to the Anfield jigsaw over the summer but instead the Reds have slumped disastrously.
From the 2000/01 season onwards, an average of 88 points has been required to land the title. With Chelsea contributing a high of 95 in 2004/05 during Jose Mourinho’s magnificent first year in England, the bar was raised and since then no team has lifted the trophy with a tally below 87 points.
Times have certainly changed since the 1990s. United celebrated top spot in 1996/97 with a mere 75 points, which would have earned them fourth place in last season’s standings. Furthermore, Arsenal tasted glory in 1997/98 with a total of 78. But the margin for error has been greatly reduced since then and contenders must chase victories more determinedly than ever whether home or away. A point on the road was once a decent result, now it is generally a case of two points dropped. Unfortunately for Benitez, his side have been hit or miss, as indicated by five wins, four losses and not a single draw.
Looking again from the turn of the century onwards, the champions have lost fewer than four league games on average – and Liverpool are at that mark already. Perhaps the statistic is misleading as Arsenal’s unbeaten campaign alters the figure considerably, as does Chelsea’s record of just one defeat in 2004/05. Focusing on the previous four seasons, five losses has been the norm, which may slightly improve the mood on Merseyside. But it is impossible to overlook the fact that there are plenty of tricky tests ahead. Only one of their defeats has come against a fellow member of the Big Four and they must still take on United, Arsenal and Manchester City twice. It would be a big ask to win all six of those games and at the moment it is hard to see them taking three points in more than a couple of them.
Going back to the average points tally also makes ugly reading for Liverpool fans. Taking 88 as the desired mark, the Reds need a further 73 points from their remaining 29 league fixtures and chasing 2.5 points a game leaves absolutely no wriggle room. There will be huge pressure heaped on the players every time they step onto the pitch and Benitez will have little chance to rest his stars. It is hard to predict how United, Chelsea, Arsenal and the rest of the contenders will fare over the coming months but it is unlikely that the 88 point mark will be lowered much, if at all.
To deepen the misery, Liverpool have managed 80 points or more just three times in the past nine seasons. In fact, during that period, the club have failed to pass the 60 mark twice and even lost a whopping 14 games in 2004/05. The current squad, of course, is a lot stronger than earlier in the decade but the fact remains that the Reds must be more consistent if they want to break United’s hold on the trophy.
Coupled with the injuries hampering key men Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres, there is very little for Benitez to smile about at present, particularly after a potentially-damaging loss to Lyon in the Champions League. Four consecutive defeats in all competitions leaves players and management alike under increasing scrutiny. And things could well get worse before they get better with some make or break fixtures ahead. Next up? A clash with United at Anfield and you can rest assured that the Red Devils will be pumped up with the opportunity to put a final nail in the Liverpool coffin up for grabs. Another defeat would undoubtedly be curtains.
Either way, though, if the statistics from the past decade are to be trusted, the news is not at all good for Liverpool. A combination of sloppiness and bad luck has plagued the Reds thus far and they are now walking a tightrope. History suggests Benitez will have to shelf his dream of a first Premier League crown for another year and focus on the Champions League, the FA Cup and the Carling Cup instead.
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