In Brazil’s top flight, the Brasileirão, every season is an adventure. For in South America’s strongest league, it’s almost impossible to predict who will be crowned champions before the competition is under way. In contrast to many of the major European leagues, where a small elite group of three or four clubs could pick up the trophy, in Brazil there are at least 12 genuine contenders, and each one is capable of a title-winning campaign. Throw in a few small clubs who could spring the odd surprise, and it’s little wonder that betting on the winning side is a tricky business; tricky until the season draws to a close that is.
Now, with just five games to go until 2010’s Brasileirão closes its doors, predicting is getting a little easier; for those who will dabble in the art. Fluminense are the league leaders on 58 points, with Corinthians and Cruzeiro just a point back. Three points behind that duo lie Botafogo on 54 points. With just four points separating first from fourth, the Brasileirão will head into the final straight with its reputation as the most exciting league in the world intact. But which of these four sides will emerge victorious? What do each have going for them?
Fluminense count on the experience of 2006, 2007 and 2008 title winning coach Muricy Ramalho. The 54-year-old has been voted Coach of the Year four times – in his three title winning years as well as the season before – and wants desperately to lift the title after last year’s fiasco, when he looked set to lead Palmeiras to victory, but ended up sacked when the team stopped winning. With quality like Deco, Fred and Conca in his squad, Ramalho has a good chance of picking up the Brasileirão crown.
Corinthians suffered a big blow when losing their coach Mano Manezes to the Seleção in July and have not looked the same side since. Adilson Batista had done good work in Menezes’ place, but his team struggled to replicate the Brazil coach’s fine performances. Soon Corinthians’ fans began to pressure the board, calling for Adilson’s head. Sadly, the club’s supporters got what they wanted and Adilson was replaced by Tite, who might have managed to record a few wins, but is still looking up towards the top of the table rather than sitting on it. Tite’s main problems lie in managing the absence of Elias and Jucilei, who are due to represent the Seleção against Argentina later this month, and deciding whether an overweight Ronaldo, still a legend at the club, is worth a spot on the pitch – a brace in the team’s last match should help his decision.
Over in Belo Horizonte, third placed Cruzeiro are keen to show they are in good shape and not only continue their fine performances from the last few years, but also cement the belief that the club are always close to bringing back a trophy; they will also partake in the Copa Libertadores next year. Unfortunately for Cruzeiro, the club cannot call upon home advantage until after the World Cup, as their ground, Mineirão, is closed for renovation ahead of 2014’s showpiece. This has meant Cruzeiro have been forced to play in another city; even this has not stopped their charge though, and they have lost just once since Mineirão was closed.
The last realistic title challengers, Botafogo, have not lost since 15th September. Since then, Fogão have drawn eight and won three of their last 11 games – the three wins coming in their last three games as they pick up momentum. It is clear that if Botafogo are to have a chance of winning this year’s Brasileirão they need to keep on the winning track and see the back of that habit of drawing games. Certainly, in the dugout, the experienced Joel Santana is working night and day to cure his players of any mental block, and so far he looks to be succeeding.
From fifth down to ninth not a single point separates the club’s involved, with Gremio, Santos, Internacional, Sao Paulo and Atletico-PR all on 50 points. Two of the pack, Santos and Internacional have already qualified for next year’s Copa Libertadores, but it cannot yet be predicted who will join them as the number of Brazilian sides in the 2011 tournament depends entirely on who picks up the Copa Sudamericana. If a Brazilian side wins South America’s second tier club competition, then CONMEBOL have confirmed there will be one spot less for the Brasileirão. And with an all-Brazilian semi-final in the Copa Sudamericana, there is a 50% chance that only three and not four clubs will represent the Brasileirão in the 2011 Copa Libertadores.
At the bottom of the league there is a sad, but none the less entertaining struggle taking place. From 20th all the way up to 13th, clubs are fighting hard to avoid relegation. Current champions Flamengo, Vitoria, Atletico-GO, Guarani, Atletico-MG, Avai and Goias are separated by just nine points, while at the bottom Prudente have a seven point gap develop between them and Goias.
Coming into the final straight, it appears difficult to know just who will end the year as Brasileirão champions and who will be heading down into the country’s second tier. But that is what makes Brazilian domestic football so exciting and keeps the crowds streaming in. The stadia might still see their fair share of violence, fans may well not enjoy the best amenities, and the federation’s poor organisational skills may be the subject of much ire, but all these negatives are still overwhelmed by the spectacle on the pitch and the sheer thrill of the Brasileirão.
