What: English Premier League
Who: Chelsea vs Arsenal
When: Sunday 20th January, 2013, at 13:30 UK Time
Where: Stamford Bridge, London, England
No Home Comforts for Rafael Benitez and Chelsea
Sometimes statistics mislead. Yet when it comes to Chelsea’s home form, they tell the whole story perfectly. In six home games domestically, Rafael Benitez has just won one as Chelsea manager. Away from home, he has taken 18 points from 21 games, including difficult trips to Stoke and Everton – although it is important to note that even in victories in both of those, Chelsea were lucky to survive being overrun in the opening stages and cannot rely too much on the opposition being so profligate every week.
And so it is that Benitez welcomes Arsenal to Stamford Bridge for what is a critical game in terms of the race for the Champions League spots. Statistically, they are not the side Chelsea will have wanted to end their miserable home run against. Arsenal have won more Premier League games at Stamford Bridge than any other team and in the corresponding fixture last season became the only visiting side to score five goals away to Chelsea since the league’s inception. Benitez could justifiably point to a personal record though which has seen him win five out of 10 home matches previously against Arsene Wenger’s side.
It is easy to read into Chelsea’s home form and conclude that the hostile, testy atmosphere at Stamford Bridge is a contributing factor to their problems. And it probably is, although regardless of the crowd’s behaviour, one point from six against Queens Park Rangers and Southampton at home is form even Reading would be disappointed with. One bright spark is the quick adaptation of Demba Ba, the Senegalese forward who has hit the ground running since signing from Newcastle. Unlike a certain Spaniard.
Arsenal Look to Bounce Back
Arsenal come into this game looking to bounce back from the disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City last weekend. It is hard to read too much into that game, beyond the psychological disappointment of course, because once Arsenal were reduced to 10 men early on they were never likely to get anything from that point. Against a side as adept at passing the ball and pressing high as they are, the challenge of taking on Manchester City a man light was one Arsenal were painfully not equipped to deal with.
And so discipline will be emphasised by Wenger ahead of this game, to ensure for one thing that they do not have to deal with such problems again. Arsenal have played a game since the Manchester City defeat, a 1-0 win over Swansea in midweek. That victory was encouraging for the Gunners, who continued their inconsistent form by showing the more positive side of their game as they overran the Welsh side in the second period, with Jack Wilshere particularly impressive in their eventual victory.
Yet Arsenal have fewer points this year than in any other season at the same point under Wenger and it is imperative that they get some form together in the weeks ahead if they are not to be left with too much to do to finish in the top four. The Gunners’ away form does give some cause for optimism; they have lost just three times on their travels in their last 19 in the Premier League and are currently unbeaten in five on the road. If statistics told the whole story, this would be an away win, and comfortably. No one would be surprised if the result went the other way though – but eight points behind their opponents with a game in hand, it is critical for Arsenal that it doesn’t.
Recent form
Arsenal:
Swansea City 2-2 Arsenal (06/01; FA Cup)
Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City (13/01; Premier League)
Arsenal 1-0 Swansea City (16/01; FA Cup)
Chelsea:
Chelsea 0-2 Swansea City (09/01; FA Cup)
Stoke City 0-4 (12/01; Premier League)
Chelsea 2-2 Southampton (16/01; Premier League)
Key absences
Chelsea: John Obi Mikel; Victor Moses; Oriol Romeu
Arsenal: Mikel Arteta; Gervinho; Tomas Rosicky
Players to watch
Chelsea – Demba Ba: Ba caused Arsenal no end of problems at the Emirates Stadium a few weeks ago when he was still in a Newcastle shirt. If given the nod to play ahead of Fernando Torres, it will be interesting to see if he can cause the same trouble for the visitors. He most certainly could, and his pace, strength and counter-attacking ability make him a real threat for a leaky Arsenal backline.
Arsenal – Jack Wilshere: Wilshere’s display on Wednesday night was typical of the kind of form the Englishman showed before he suffered his major ankle injury. The 20-year-old has been getting back to something like his best, but he looked like he was there against Swansea, driving his team forward, using his technical and passing prowess allied with his ability to surge past opponents to create. A gifted technical midfielder, Wilshere’s competitive streak and forceful running adds an interesting element to an Arsenal side who can look one paced against organised defences. His ability to take opponents out of the game opens up new options for Wenger and his team, and if he is able to run the game on, Chelsea could have a long afternoon.
Match Prediction
The most interesting tactical observation on Chelsea recently is the way in which they seem ill equipped to take the game to their opponents. Against a Queens Park Rangers side that sat back deep and gave them no space, Chelsea did not have an answer. The same was true against a Swansea side who Chelsea outplayed for long periods at home but still lost against. And Southampton restricted Chelsea’s space and similarly were rewarded. Yet away from home, the Blues have been outplayed for long periods by Stoke and Everton yet been ruthless on the break. This is as much an explanation of their strange home form as anything else.
With that in mind, it would be misleading to pay too much attention to Chelsea’s record at Stamford Bridge when Arsenal visit. The Gunners will as ever look to attack and throw men forward, and this should in theory play right into Benitez’s hands. The big question for the Blues is how well their defence can cope with the marauding runs of the revitalised Wilshere combined with the movement of Arsenal’s front three.
It will be interesting to see if Wenger plays Abou Diaby and Francis Coquelin again. They add more movement and defensive strength to the team, as Diaby’s running means he can track back quickly and effectively and help Arsenal retain their shape. They will be important too given the absence of Mikel Arteta, such an important player because of his discipline and positional play defensively. That shape will be vital if Arsenal aren’t to be caught on the counter-attack too easily. It should make for an entertaining open game and with neither defence looking too clever, a score draw looks the smart prediction. Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal.
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