What: Champions League – Round of 16 Second leg
Who: Bayern Munich (3) vs Arsenal (1) (first leg score in brackets)
When: Wednesday 13th March, 2013, at 19:45 UK Time
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany
Bayern Munich’s Relentless Run Shows No Sign of Slowing
A 3-2 win over Fortuna Dusseldorf at the weekend extended Bayern Munich’s formidable Bundesliga lead to a massive 20 points as they close in on the title in record time. But having gone behind twice and needed a late winner to get the three points, Bayern Munich showed some unusual vulnerability. Unfortunately for their opponents here, when Arsenal come to analyse the game they will find that the Bavarians’ unusual defensive showing was due in no small part to the absence of Dante, the superb Brazilian centre-back who was taking a rest in preparation for midweek.
Everything seems to be in Bayern Munich’s favour, most importantly the aggregate score of course. The German giants have never lost by more than two goals at home in the Champions League, have netted in each of their last 13 games in the competition and Arsenal have kept just one clean sheet in 23 outings in Europe. What is more, while Bayern Munich are the tournament’s top scorers, Arsenal have scored fewest of those teams still involved.
With goals coming from all areas and a historic treble potentially in sight, Bayern Munich will be determined after missing out on all three competitions by such narrow margins last season to leave nothing to chance. That can only be bad news for Arsenal.
Arsenal In Need of an Impossible Miracle
Arsenal face the impossible challenge as they go to Munich looking to overturn a 3-1 first leg deficit. Only twice have a team ever recovered from a home defeat in the first leg and both times they were from 1-0 losses. Arsenal must score at least three times to have any chance and until this weekend, Bayern Munich had not even conceded that many goals in the whole of 2013. Arsenal by contrast have been poor of late and come into this game still searching for the form they will need to finish in the Premier League’s top four and qualify again for this tournament next year.
Nonetheless Arsenal, improbable as it may seem, are the Premier League’s last hope. The faint glimmers of optimism for Arsenal are that Bayern Munich look more vulnerable defensively at home, where they have conceded nine Bundesliga goals, compared with just one away from home. Unlike Bayern Munich, Arsenal have had over a break of more than a week to recover and prepare for this match. And the Londoners did go into their Round of 16 second leg last season 4-0 down to AC Milan, before scoring three goals before half-time in the return to give them a real chance of producing one of the great European comebacks.
The stark reality for the Gunners though is that this Bayern Munich team are a far better side than Milan last year, and the gulf between the two in the first leg was huge. To pull off a big enough win in Munich to progress, Arsenal will have to defy history, present form, logic itself and the bookmakers, some of who have them at 40/1 to go through. Having lost three of their last four in all competitions, even that looks a bit generous for Wenger’s men.
Recent form
Bayern Munich:
Bayern Munich 1-0 Borussia Dortmund (27/02; German Cup)
Hoffenheim 0-1 Bayern Munich (03/03; Bundesliga)
Bayern Munich 3-2 Fortuna Dusseldorf (09/03; Bundesliga)
Arsenal:
Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich (19/02; Champions League)
Arsenal 2-1 Aston Villa (23/02; Premier League)
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Arsenal (03/03; Premier League)
Key absences
Borussia Dortmund: Holger Badstuber; Franck Ribery; Arjen Robben (doubt); Bastian Schweinsteiger
Arsenal: Lukas Podolski (doubt); Abou Diaby (doubt); Bacary Sagna; Jack Wilshere
Players to watch
Bayern Munich – Toni Kroos: Kroos was fantastic in the first leg, constantly moving into space, showing tremendous tactical discipline to burgeon his growing reputation. The young German is remarkably mature for someone of his age and his tactical intelligence is superb, constantly choosing the right options in possession and knowing where to move when others have the ball. And when he gets the space to pull the trigger on his right foot, the result is often deadly, his goal at the Emirates no surprise to anyone who has seen him in action a few times before.
Arsenal – Theo Walcott: Walcott was ineffectual in the first leg, although not for want of trying. He was isolated as a lone forward, a thankless task up against Dante. Wenger may give Walcott more freedom to drift into space rather than stay central in Munich and that could be key. The Englishman has proven his class on the biggest stage in the past, dragging his team back into a tie against Barcelona and dazzling at Anfield and the San Siro on big Champions League nights for Arsenal previously. His pace stretches defences and Arsenal will need to make full use of his ability to do that against Bayern Munich if they are to have any chance of progress.
Match Prediction
The problem for Arsenal is that while they have shown before that they have fight and spirit, and no little quality either, all too often a shoddy lack of organisation and tactical discipline lets them down. No matter how hard they may try, those weaknesses are shown up most of all against teams like Bayern Munich, who will go for the throat every time they get the ball and exploit any deficiencies. Those weaknesses were on show against Tottenham a week ago when Arsenal played with passion and precision for half an hour, before their leaky defence was exposed twice in four minutes by simple passes from midfield. When a side have a core as weak as that, it is hard to see how they can beat Europe’s form team on their own patch.
The biggest danger for Bayern Munich will probably be complacency and perhaps a fear of the English. Beaten in the 1999 Champions League final by Manchester United when they seemed to have the game won as the clocked spilled over into injury time, and then defeated improbably by Chelsea on their own turf in last season’s finale, Premier League sides always seem to reserve something special for FC Hollywood.
But for any team looking to overturn a deficit of the sort Arsenal need to recover, the opposition they would least like to have to take on is this Bayern Munich side, whose professionalism, organisation and efficiency should ensure they keep the Gunners at a comfortable arm’s length throughout. Arsenal can recover some pride, but not the tie. Bayern Munich 2-1 Arsenal.
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