All too often the Premier League, entertaining though it may be, fails to live up to the hype surrounding it. But for the money men responsible for the hyperbole, this is one of those seasons that comes around once in a decade, when it truly lives up to the hype. A genuine four-horse race is gathering momentum as the season rolls towards the final furlongs, with just a few points having separated Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea for over a month, whilst Liverpool are gathering steam.
The conditions were in place for a thrilling campaign from the start. The top two teams of last year underwent major changes last summer, as Roberto Mancini left Manchester City and Sir Alex Ferguson’s glorious dynasty at Old Trafford came to an end. With Jose Mourinho returning to Chelsea they were always likely to rejoin the title race this season. And Arsenal enjoyed their first stable summer in years, which was capped by the signing of Mesut Ozil. Liverpool held onto Luis Suarez and strengthened, whilst Tottenham shelled out big money to replace Gareth Bale. The ingredients were always there for Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool to challenge the Manchester clubs. And it would do a disservice to Everton to ignore the stunning form they have shown this season, and they remain very much in the hunt for a Champions League spot. But the title race does now look like it will come down to three or four sides.
Chelsea are the team currently holding the position of title favourites. There is an aura about Mourinho that convinces people he will lead his team to the title this season. They remain in the hunt, despite a strange season. The first third of the campaign was marked by baffling inconsistency, an uncharacteristic failure to put away teams when they had the chance and a leaky defence. The middle third has seen them surge into title contention with the resilience and solidity of old, yet the win at Manchester City earlier this month hinted at a team looking to change style again. Will that cost the west Londoners?
And all of this is not to forget that neither of the two big spending sides, in Chelsea and Manchester City, have been top of the table for the majority of the season. The least fancied of the contenders, Arsenal, are the ones who led from the front from September before being nudged off the summit. They may not boast the same collection of dazzling attackers as Manchester City, nor the title winning know-how of Chelsea, but Arsenal have been the most consistent team up to now. They picked up more points in 2013 than anyone, they aren’t dropping points in the games they should win; whereas their rivals have. Conversely, they have yet to win the very biggest games, against their direct title rivals, Liverpool aside. But the crushing defeat to Liverpool at Anfield raises serious questions; it was the manner of the defeat which worries; even against Manchester City, Arsenal were always in the game until the last 20 minutes when fatigue caught up with them. Against Liverpool, what should have been a fresh side were 4-0 down just 20 minutes in.
Squad depth has been questioned but Arsenal have spent most of the season with a lengthy injury list. Their forward line has attracted the most attention, with many wondering whether they could cope with an injury to Olivier Giroud. This isn’t so much an issue about goals – their top scorer has been injured for over a month now and they continue to thrive – but about what Giroud gives the team. Their attacking game is built around his combination of physical strength and determination, and technical ability. But he may be starting to tire, and that could be a major worry. The daunting run of games they face in March (Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City, Everton; 5th April) will be the making or breaking of them. Momentum is vital in the final months of the season, and it is much harder to build that up playing a top six side every week, as Arsenal will have been for much of February and March. It could well be that the harsh run of fixtures is enough to stop Wenger’s team in their tracks. But if they get to April within a couple of points of the top or better, then they will have a fantastic chance.
Then there are Manchester City, who remain many people’s favourites, on account of the sheer strength of their squad and the exuberant style with which they have blown away so many opponents. Manchester City have by far the strongest forward line. Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Negredo, Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic can swap positions at will and keep scoring. Behind them are Samir Nasri, David Silva and Yaya Toure. And Fernandinho. Their passing and movement is a joy to watch and they have crushed some of the top teams at home (and away). The Citizens’ sheer firepower threatens to force them over the line in a close title race and they have more experience fighting for the title than either Arsenal or Chelsea in recent years. As Mourinho keeps pointing out, Manchester City should be at their peak, with players around the 28, 29 mark.
However, Manuel Pellegrini’s men don’t tend to come alive in the spring. Although they won the league two years ago, that was in spite of a collapse in the second half of the season, where their early season goalscoring form, which it is easy to forget is similar to that they have produced this year, fizzled out. And last year they again collapsed in the season’s final months. Defeat at home to Chelsea and a draw at Norwich may have been a sign of things to come. And for all their goalscoring potential, it is Silva who they rely upon so much. It was his drop in form in 2012 that almost cost Manchester City the title that year, and if he drops off this season, they will struggle to maintain results.
The beauty of this particular season is that with 11 games to go it is impossible to call the race, even if Mourinho continues to pretend his Chelsea side aren’t title winners in the making. There are arguments to be made for and against all three main contenders, yet no particularly convincing case.
In this most unpredictable of seasons, could there be a twist to come from Liverpool? They face all the top teams at home, have no European football to distract them and boast the league’s best player in Luis Suarez. Brendan Rodgers’ side probably won’t win it, but in this closely fought season, it is hard to comprehensively bet against them. Both Arsenal and Everton have enjoyed consistent and solid seasons featuring plenty of possession and few goals conceded, yet both were crushed at Anfield. If Liverpool keep up their form, then they cannot be discounted from this most unpredictable and thrilling of title races.
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