The Yorkshire giants were relegated from the Premier League last season and in the autopsy questions have been asked about the club not sacking Jesse Marsch before the World Cup break.
Aston Villa were a club that did make a change, with Steven Gerrard being shown the door and Emery appointed at the start of November.
Villa soared under Emery and finished in a Europa Conference League spot, while when Leeds did pull the trigger on Marsch it proved to be too late.
Kinnear stressed that when managerial changes are made after half a season has gone then they go wrong as many times as they work.
He admits Emery proved to be superb for Aston Villa, but stressed Leeds simply could not land the Spaniard.
“If you look at the stats of when you make a managerial change after about the halfway point in the season, if you’re in a relegation scenario, it’s basically a toss of a coin about whether it works or not”, Kinnear said on the Square Ball.
“There is a 50-50 chance. On 50 per cent of occasions the manager changes things, where it did for Unai Emery.
“Emery is a manager that we couldn’t afford or secure, but turned out to be an excellent choice.
“But there are equally as many teams who make a managerial change and don’t succeed.”
Leeds are now under the management of Daniel Farke and the German will be aiming to take the Whites straight back up to the Premier League.
